14 replies to this topic

[Kadrix43]

We all know that Gardiner is a really talented kid and is already pretty much proven hes a top 4 d man at the nhl level, hes only gonna get better, he actually had a hell of a rookie year. Rielly was VERY impressive in the WHL vs Russia game and all season with Moose Jaw... He is super talented and this may be early but hes looking like hes poised to become a top pairing offensive d man, he even looked solid defensively to me. Sweet speed good hands great vision and just makes the simple passes hard and crisp that the team needs. And i know everyone on here hates Phaneuf but the guys very physical is a decent puck mover and has a bomb of a shot, i think as he becomes a veteran Carlyle can whip him into great defensive shape, he actually didnt have a bad year at all last year under WIlsons system. We have a lot of guys who show promise like Franson And Gunner who already have proven themselves at the NHL level, but im real excited for Matt Finn and Stu Percy... Finn is a kid straight off the toronto marblbros was a high pick in the OHL draft and is the captain of the guelph storm. He has shown that he can log huge minutes as a great puck mover and shutdown d man who can also play the PP, Stu Percy is an extremely calm toronto kid who shows extreme poise on the defensive and offensive side of the puck and is a solid ice time eater. Not to mention with all the salary coming off the books finding good veteran stay at home d men shouldnt be to hard for Burkie to get in free agency, he may not have found a solid netminder yet but our blue line looks real good.

[howiegethere]

Just what is it your smoking ? Franson won't be back in blue and white and the only two prospects the Leafs have at defence are Gardiner and Reilly so far . The rest of these guys you mention are simply not making a difference .
Sure if the new CBA causes a lot of salary dumps as teams adjust to a much lower cap there will be some solid journeymen defence available but the Leafs will be one of the teams making the cuts .
When you replace veteran players with rookies to save salary you basically get a watered down version of an NHL team not to mention that every team will be subject to salary adjustments so in the end all you really get is the same players playing for less .
I really don't think a rookie defence corp anchored by Phaneuf is any improvement since every team in the Eastern conference has improved except the Leafs who remained stagnant in the offseason except for a few questionable deals that made them softer .
Not to worry since it doesn't look like there will be much if any NHL hockey played this season

[Buncky]

JVR is going to be better than Schenn ever will be...i can just smell it...and youre right i like our d man as well...we also have Gunnarson whose sound defensively. Holzer, Frazer, Percy, Fin, and all you guys forget Jesse Blacker and Paul Ranger....Thats solid man

[sluggo]

JVR is going to be better than Schenn ever will be...i can just smell it...and youre right i like our d man as well...we also have Gunnarson whose sound defensively. Holzer, Frazer, Percy, Fin, and all you guys forget Jesse Blacker and Paul Ranger....Thats solid man

Rememner not all those prospects are goign to make it. I know its easy to get excited and start expecting every prospect to be an NHL player, but thats not how it works. On average (and over his career Burke is an average drafter) a team gets about 1.5 players per draft. Burke has been here for 4 drafts. So of Kadri, Ryan, Blacker, D'Amigo, Ross, McKegg, Biggs, Percy, Leivo, Nilsson, Sparks, Rielly, Finn (and those are just the guys I see mentioned often/more often on here and/or who are/have playing/played well), less then half will be NHL players, if the Leafs drafted well.

In regards to the defense.....the Leafs were among hte leaders in shots allowed per game, goals against per game, had one of the worst PK's in the league and didn't have a single + D-man on the team. So I don't think you can say the Leafs have a "sweet defense core". They have depth at defense in the system though Rielly is the only one who appears to have greater then depth potential, the rest appear to be future (if they make it) 2nd or 3rd pairing guys. Even if they had a 6 man unit made up completely of the players in their system (Rielly, Gardiner, Finn, Holzer, Percy, Blacker) I don't know if that group woul dbe anything better then your average defense group. Plus recently Burke has given up the two most mature, physical and defensively minded young D-men he had (Schenn and Aulie) which certainly hurts that group.

[Carmissimo]

Rememner not all those prospects are goign to make it. I know its easy to get excited and start expecting every prospect to be an NHL player, but thats not how it works. On average (and over his career Burke is an average drafter) a team gets about 1.5 players per draft. Burke has been here for 4 drafts. So of Kadri, Ryan, Blacker, D'Amigo, Ross, McKegg, Biggs, Percy, Leivo, Nilsson, Sparks, Rielly, Finn (and those are just the guys I see mentioned often/more often on here and/or who are/have playing/played well), less then half will be NHL players, if the Leafs drafted well.

In regards to the defense.....the Leafs were among hte leaders in shots allowed per game, goals against per game, had one of the worst PK's in the league and didn't have a single + D-man on the team. So I don't think you can say the Leafs have a "sweet defense core". They have depth at defense in the system though Rielly is the only one who appears to have greater then depth potential, the rest appear to be future (if they make it) 2nd or 3rd pairing guys. Even if they had a 6 man unit made up completely of the players in their system (Rielly, Gardiner, Finn, Holzer, Percy, Blacker) I don't know if that group woul dbe anything better then your average defense group. Plus recently Burke has given up the two most mature, physical and defensively minded young D-men he had (Schenn and Aulie) which certainly hurts that group.

It isn't Burke's draft record that matters but rather Dave Morrison's. The picks are based on Morrison's recommendations, I would think, more than what Burke might be thinking.

So let's look at Morrison's record. He has been the head scout since 2006 and been a member of the Leafs' amateur scouting department since 2004, scouting before that with the Canucks.

In 2006, the Leafs drafted Juri Tlusty, Nikolai Kulemin, James Reimer, Korbinian Holzer, Viktor Stalberg, Tyler Ruegsegger, Leo Komorov. Out of those picks, only Ruegsegger looks like he's not NHL material. Tlusty, Kulemin, Reimer and Stalberg are already NHLers with Holzer and Komorov looking like they have an excellent shot at making it soon.

In 2007, the Leafs drafted Dale Mitchell, Matt Frattin, Ben Winnett, Juraj Mikus, Christopher DiDomenico, and Carl Gunnarsson. It would appear that Frattin and Gunnersson are going to be NHLers. DiDomenico was headed in that direction but suffered a terrible injury that took a long time to recover from. He needed to work on his skating to begin with and the injury was a major setback that caused him to fall even further behind. It's unfortunate but that sort of thing happens in life. Still, DiDomenico did make Team Canada's world junior team one year and he was a credible pick at 164th overall. Regardless, out of six picks made in 2007, the Leafs have two NHLers, despite their first pick in that draft coming at 74th overall. As well, 2007 was arguably the worst draft in recent memory. That the Leafs got any NHLers out of a bad draft with no picks in the first two rounds is rather impressive.

In 2008, the Leafs drafted Luke Schenn and an additional seven players who appear likely to not make the NHL, unless Jimmy Hayes can stick over the long run. Hayes did play 33 games with the Blackhawks last season, including 2 playoff games.

As for who the Leafs have drafted since then, it's much too soon to say what will become of them. There are some prospects who look to have a shot at an NHL career in that group, including Kadri, D'Amigo, Ross, McKegg, Granberg, Biggs, Percy, Leivo, Nilsson, Broll, Sparks, Rielly, Finn, and Toninato. Still, way too soon to be able to figure out who is going to make it.

It seems to me that when Morrison's staff, prior to 2009 were able to select in a matter of three drafts, Juri Tlusty, Nikolai Kulemin, James Reimer, Korbinian Holzer, Viktor Stalberg, Leo Komorov, Matt Frattin, Carl Gunnarsson, Luke Schenn, and Jimmy Hayes, that's way better than a 1.5 players per draft average. To be sure, the average is a little skewed because 2006 was absolutely spectacular for Morrison's staff. It's rare that a team manages to draft six NHLers with seven picks, especially considering five of those seven picks came after the third round.

There is no question that only some of the kids the Leafs draft will turn into NHLers. Yet I think that the 1.5 players per draft number is a misrepresentation of Morrison's track record. He's the director of amateur scouting. As such, his record matters more at the draft table than Burke's does over the course of a long career with numerous stops.

In my opinion, Morrison is the ace that Burke needs to take the most advantage of in terms of the cards he has been dealt. I see Burke doing that, too, despite the Kessel trade. The Leafs have made 29 picks with Burke in charge in 4 drafts. That's an average of 7.25 picks per seven-round draft. The Leafs have drafted twice in the top 7 in that stretch and selected in the first two rounds eight times. They've done that yet have Kessel to show for having moved three picks from the first two rounds. And that doesn't even take into consideration trading for young talent like Jake Gardiner, without losing a pick to do it. Instead Burke dealt Beauchemin who was a free agent pick-up, to land Gardiner.

Sure we have to be cautious about having too lofty expectations for all the promising kids in the system yet to expect that the draft will be expected to produce, during Burke's tenure, an average of 1.5 players per draft is inaccurate. That would mean that out of the four drafts Burke has been around for, we should expect six NHLers. Yet in the four drafts that preceded Burke's time with the Leafs, more like 12 NHLers have resulted of varying calibre. Doesn't add up.

[sluggo]

Burke makes the final call, and Burke hasn't replaced Morrison so ultimately its on Burke.

While MOrrison was head of scouting for hte 06 draft, he only took over hte job in May of 06. Trapp did the majority of the work leadingup to that draft and got fired because Ferguson (see how its ultimately the GM?) liked Tlusty and Trapp liked Stewart and the two clashed over it, so Trapp was let go.

I also like how you are giving Morrison credit for prospects making who havn't made it yet. Also, the 07 and 08 drafts were right on the league average (3 players in 2 drafts) but assuming the average moving forward isn't realistic? And people say I spin information.

You think Morrison is the ace up the sleeve - so who currently in the system has the potential of a Stamkos or Doughty or the Sedins or Pronger etc.... Getting players is good. But if all you get are depth and complementry players.......

Yes Carm, I know the facts rarely add up for you. I looked at how every team (and then again 18 or so when I didn't want to do them all) drafted over a 10-15 year period to comeu p with the 19-21% successrate. You know what happens, teams don't actually get 3 players every 2 years. Some years they get a lot, others they get none. 1.5 players per draft is what a good drafting team can expect. And if/when you get 6 players in 1 year, it generally means you'll get zero in another year.

[No-Dice]

I don't think people really appreciate how good the 06 draft was for the Leafs.

The 06 draft was actually very bare too, outside of the top 5.

To draft Tlusty, Kulemin, Reimer, Holzer, Stalberg and Komarov is very impressive.

07 was good too, with Frattin and Gunnarsson being top notch picks.

08 was extremely underwhelming though. It was such a great draft too, and the Leafs mortgaged 2nd + 3rds to take Schenn the stay at home D-man, which was such a "luke"warm pick...

I was expecting the Leafs to make a big push in terms of acquiring more picks, to get the wheels set in motion as far as the rebuild was concerned. Hayes and MacWilliam were good picks, the others were whiffs.

The last 4 drafts are a bit early to gauge.

[racer888]

I don't think people really appreciate how good the 06 draft was for the Leafs.

The 06 draft was actually very bare too, outside of the top 5.

To draft Tlusty, Kulemin, Reimer, Holzer, Stalberg and Komarov is very impressive.

07 was good too, with Frattin and Gunnarsson being top notch picks.

08 was extremely underwhelming though. It was such a great draft too, and the Leafs mortgaged 2nd + 3rds to take Schenn the stay at home D-man, which was such a "luke"warm pick...

I was expecting the Leafs to make a big push in terms of acquiring more picks, to get the wheels set in motion as far as the rebuild was concerned. Hayes and MacWilliam were good picks, the others were whiffs.

The last 4 drafts are a bit early to gauge.

If 06 was so good for the leafs why are we still a lottery team? 6 years should be long enough for results from the 06 draft to show a return on the ice

[No-Dice]

If 06 was so good for the leafs why are we still a lottery team? 6 years should be long enough for results from the 06 draft to show a return on the ice

How well the Leafs draft and how well the team performs are two qualities that can be measured separately. You're asking how the team could draft well 6 years ago and still not be a good team when the reality is that success doesn't exist in a vacuum.

[sluggo]

I don't think people really appreciate how good the 06 draft was for the Leafs.

The 06 draft was actually very bare too, outside of the top 5.

To draft Tlusty, Kulemin, Reimer, Holzer, Stalberg and Komarov is very impressive.

07 was good too, with Frattin and Gunnarsson being top notch picks.

08 was extremely underwhelming though. It was such a great draft too, and the Leafs mortgaged 2nd + 3rds to take Schenn the stay at home D-man, which was such a "luke"warm pick...

I was expecting the Leafs to make a big push in terms of acquiring more picks, to get the wheels set in motion as far as the rebuild was concerned. Hayes and MacWilliam were good picks, the others were whiffs.

The last 4 drafts are a bit early to gauge.

The leafs have been a good/average drafting team for a long time now (10-15 years). The problem, why are still a lottery team and still have major holes/needs, is that while they do get a lot of players, they have mostly been secondary and depth talent (like Gunnerson and Frattin). And its not that drafting those kinds of players is a problem, but when you don;'t have franchise players on your roster and you only draft secondary and depth talent........sooner or later its going to catch up to you.

Look at who the leafs have drafted from 2000 to now. Nothing wrong with that track record. As I said its good/average. Now look at teh best players drafted since 2000, not one of them a Leaf. Thats a problem.

[2K4RSXTypeS]

Yeah it's tough when you don't bottom out to get the best possible player every year. Then it's also tough when you don't luck out, and you take Tlusty instead of Giroux. You think Philly had any idea that this guy was who he became? Doubtful, you win some you lose some. Unfortunately for the Leafs, we just haven't won any franchise type players in these drafts.

Might be a symptom of poor drafting, but like you said, we've been picking up decent players, but they only ever turn out to be good supporting players. So maybe what we've been missing is luck.

[sluggo]

Yeah it's tough when you don't bottom out to get the best possible player every year. Then it's also tough when you don't luck out, and you take Tlusty instead of Giroux. You think Philly had any idea that this guy was who he became? Doubtful, you win some you lose some. Unfortunately for the Leafs, we just haven't won any franchise type players in these drafts.

Might be a symptom of poor drafting, but like you said, we've been picking up decent players, but they only ever turn out to be good supporting players. So maybe what we've been missing is luck.

It was pointed out the other day that the pick Burke traded to take Biggs was used to draft John Gibson. That kinda stings.

But to be fair, NO ONE thought Giroux would be as good as he is, and most people thought Tlusty would be better. That mistake is understandable (now if you want to blame Fergusonf or not listening to Trapp, who wanted them to draft Chris Stewart.......). The same is true of the Biggs/Gibson thing. It stings, but its not like anyone was hoping Burke would draft Gibson.

Its not just hte Leafs, most teams don;t "win" those franchise player bets with players taken later in the draft. Thats why when you need that player (at least the new GM admits you have to draft and develop those players yourself) or players its up to the GM to give himself the best oppertunity to draft them. Its not luck they are missing, its been oppertunity. Taking Rielly at 5 is the highest the leafs have drafted since 2008 when th ey took Schenn and 1989 when they drafted 3rd before that. Its not that Burke wasn't lucky at the draft table, its that he hasn't had hte oppertunity to draft guys liek Duchene, Segin and Hamilton - which he should have.

[OptimusReim81]

He did a really good job of rebuilding our prospect pool and minor league teams with high end talent, this may sound bad, but I would rather tank this year and pick up one of the studs in this draft ( god I wish for Jones, Drouin, or Mackinnon) and have a solid young core moving forward with those elite prospects, Rielly, Gardiner, Kessel, JVR, Finn, Biggs, Percy, Kadri, Franson, Blacker, etc.

[OptimusReim81]

Now we need to draft a top end goalie prospect in the 2nd next year (Furcale I hope) develop him and get a franchise goalie. Don't know how good Sparks will be

[sluggo]

He did a really good job of rebuilding our prospect pool and minor league teams with high end talent, this may sound bad, but I would rather tank this year and pick up one of the studs in this draft ( god I wish for Jones, Drouin, or Mackinnon) and have a solid young core moving forward with those elite prospects, Rielly, Gardiner, Kessel, JVR, Finn, Biggs, Percy, Kadri, Franson, Blacker, etc.

They need more then just 1 year at the bottom